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Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Discontents II October 7, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Uncategorized.
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In October of 2009 I wrote a post titled Efficient Market Theory and its Discontents.

Here is a sample:

Regular readers know that I am not a believer in the efficient market theory.  Facts are, I am a social scientist and understand the huge amount of data that tells us we generally act upon our emotions and are not rational, especially in times of stress.  The percentage of folks that can remain completely rational at all times is extremely small.

For me it all started with reading Warren Buffett, but he is far from the only EMT discontent.  Unfortunately, the media, the financial planning world, and most of the internet media are big  fans of EMT and its associated strategies.  What that has led to is the vast majority of folks losing out on a once in an investors lifetime opportunity.  Because so many people were either panicking or convinced that their asset allocation, mutual fund, strategy was solid the vast amount of people missed it.  What is it?  If you had been paying attention you could have bought solid companies at rock bottom prices back in March and April.  Want examples?  General Electric went below $7 [currently at $16.16].  Wells Fargo below $9 [currently $29.26].   Goldman Sacks below $60 [currently at $190.48] and Berkshire Hathaway went down below $73,000 [currently at $100,400].  Apple below $80 [currently $190.25].

Now my point isn’t to play Monday Morning Quarterback with stock picking.  Only to point out that if you had followed Warren Buffett’s investing theories instead of some academic’s or what Wall Street wants you to believe in, there really were “once in a investing lifetime” opportunities.  And if you were following those bobble heads or mutual fund sales folks or financial planners or any of the other so called experts you missed it.

My only regret was that I was not more liquid in order to buy more than I did.

So I thought an update would be interesting.  Note I didn’t pick obscure, small growth companies, but big, well known mature companies that most people were talking about at that time.

 

General Electric currently sits at $24.39 a total return of 348% plus 8 years of dividends

Apple currently sits at $155.30 a split adjusted return of 634% plus 8 years of dividends

Wells Fargo sits at $55.58, a total return of 615% plus 8 years of dividends

Goldman Sacks sits at $246.10, a total return of 410%, plus 8 years of dividends

Berkshire Hathaway sits at $281,000 a total return of 385%.

Now here is the kicker.  I didn’t completely follow my own advice.  Yes, I bought more Berkshire Hathaway and some Goldman Sacks.  But, I failed to buy Apple, even thought I loved the company and had money and even came within seconds of clicking on a buy bottom for my brokerage [My biggest regret yet].   Now I bought several other stocks that did really well, and 2 that didn’t.  But, I knew they were more risky than the ones listed above.

So here is the bottom line.  The market wasn’t rationally evaluating those companies in 2007.  It was reacting to the fear of the day.  It might not be rationally evaluating the companies now.  Most people can’t emotionally look at the market and not act in the face of fear or excitement [of major movements up].  So, the result is fear pushes people to sell when stocks are dropping and excitement causes people to buy when the market is seemingly going endlessly up causing these large movements up and down.  This happens to professionals and amateurs alike.  It happens to me, even though I am conscious of it.  It happens to folks that invest in mutual funds the same way as if they were in individual stocks.  Right now, people are buying into funds at record pace.  This probably means we are at the end of a bull market.

Meanwhile, myself and others who have bought Equity Index life insurance have had solid returns over the last 10 years [around 8%] and since we aren’t relegated to the whims of the market sleep well and don’t react to fear or excitement in the ways others with full market exposure do. EIULs is an effective strategy for us because it keeps us from reacting the way our brain insists we do in the face of fear or excitement.

 

 

 

 

 

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Record retail buying of stocks September 7, 2017

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2017 has seen impressive retail [mostly through mutual funds] buying of equities. 2017 has also seen significant insider selling of stocks. Want to bet how this comes out?

Energy stocks are actually the opposite with retail selling and insider buying.

Dangerous times in the market! May 26, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance, mutual funds, Retirement Income.
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Just wanted to put out my thoughts here. We are in a serious transition period that adds tremendous risk to all markets. We seeing more and more irrational market movements. Interest rates are being pushed up gradually, companies are reporting mixed results. Oil markets are running off of only emotions, forgetting fundamentals. Real estate and the the equity markets have both had fairly long run-ups by historical standards. And politically, there is huge risk with a new untested leader.

Now is the time to be very careful if you have market driven financial products. If you are planning to retire anytime soon, protect yourself. If you can’t emotionally deal with huge losses in the equity market, move to products that protect principal.

Frankly, I am not good at “timing” market issues and usually keep my money at work. But I have plenty of time to recover if the market goes south and have a good amount in my EIUL which won’t go south. Additionally, since half my stock portfolio is in Berkshire, which performs best in down markets, I feel safe. My oil stocks have already done poorly for the last couple years, so no more damage can be done to them.

Protect yourselves going into the summer.

There is more than 1 right answer! May 2, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance, mutual funds, paradigm shift, Retirement Income.
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I recently pulled out and wore an old t-shirt. It was a t-shirt from an old friend who is now deceased. He was a jeweler who made fine items for folks. The ultra-wealthy from all over the east would come to buy his wares. He was a mountain of a man with huge hands. I was always amazed that those club hands could make such fine jewelry. When he walked the beach he lived on, most people thought he was some biker and stayed away from him. He like it that way.

On the back of the t-shirt is his saying: It’s better to be a well known drunk than an anonymous alcoholic.

You can imagine the looks I got when I took my son to the playground wearing this t-shirt. 🙂
Anyway it has spent way to much time tucked into my closet and now I just don’t care what looks I get.

But the saying on the t-shirt it speaks to perspective. He lived the life of a rich and somewhat famous person and pretty much did what he wanted to do. While 12 step programs are all about conforming to society’s norms around substance abuse.

Where is this all going? Well most of us conform to the norms of society in our everyday life. We go about our business never really questioning the reality taught to us by those in power. Now I am not saying that we should all go around drinking excessively and doing what we want without regards to others. But I am saying that there are always alternative ways of thinking that are just as valuable as what we have been taught.

I dedicate my life to helping people understand that in the financial world. I am grateful that so many people come to understand what I am teaching them and have found financial success as a result.

As my son is now a freshman in HS, we often have discussions about the world. I find myself having to play “devil’s advocate” with some of his now strongly held beliefs. I hope he will learn from our discussions and not be so quick to buy into what is being told to him whether it is political, financial or the propaganda from the medical system about what is good for him and what is not. I hope he learns to be a critical thinker. He will need to be.

Wall Street invents another way to beat you with “Robo-Advisors” April 6, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance, mutual funds, Mutual Funds for Retirement, Retirement Income.
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Wall Street has always put their profits ahead of the people they advise on stock buying.
This, of course, should not be shocking. But, even I am amazed at how inventive they have become. So called “Robo-Advisors,” or using computers instead of human advisors to help folks make decisions on their market securities are being introduced. These “Robo-Advisors” are just computer programs that attempt to pick up sensitive/hidden market movements and place trades for folks. Now, most people know that Wall Street already employs computers on their own accounts [so called high-frequency trading] and these have allowed Wall Street firms to make huge profits at all of our expense. Now, they are saying that they will employ computers on your behalf. Does anyone really think that they will organize these computers to beat the ones they already have working for their own accounts?

Or is this just another marketing strategy? Retail accounts for most of these Wall Street firms are huge money makers and these Wall Street firms have generally moved to prioritizing getting company 401ks under their direction away from trying to talk to individuals. Of course once they control your companies retirement accounts they put a “representative” in charge of talking to you with cookie cutter advice. These representative job is really to just get people happy with what the marketing is, at least enough to not complain.

Ever ask yourself why it is you have so little control over “your” 401K? Ever ask yourself why you can’t access your accounts, move them, take money out when you want and need to? Ever ask yourself why the investment choices are so minimal? Wouldn’t it be great if you could control $Billions of dollars of other peoples money with those people having so little ability to wrest control of their money away from you, pretty much having to leave their job to do it? And if you were in this position of controlling all this money, why you would suddenly stop putting your own trading accounts ahead of this other money? You earn fees on “managing” this money no matter how it does in the market. In fact, you advise people to just buy index funds and ride the out any market, which if they listen to you only stabilizes these earned fees.

Let me add all this up for you:
1. Wall Street has always put its account ahead of yours when it comes to making profitable trades and stock owning strategies; and
2. Their main concern has always been how best to market to you; and
3. They, along with the US Government, have designed a system that steals control of your “retirement accounts” from you to them. Really the only way most people can get control of their 401Ks is to leave the company they are working for;
4. Their best advice is to not do anything, just leave the thinking to them; and
5. They never are honest about the final results of this system.

So this is the system you want to be involved in? Is that match really worth it?

Now they are telling you that they will employ computer programs that will increase your returns and make you a successful investor. And these computers will in direct competition with the ones already employed on their behalf.  But, don’t worry.

Really???????

Distrust; It’s the way of the world now. January 24, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Uncategorized.
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My previous post on designers of the 401K that now regret them is a primer into what is going through the minds of many people today.  The recent election surprised many [myself included], but it is really a continuation of what I have noted is the unconscious emotions being manifested by Americans.

The overriding emotion now is distrust of the ideas that are championed by people in power.  These feelings have been a long time coming, mostly hidden from sight, but increasingly breaking to the surface in dramatic fashion.  Why are we seeing this now?

Since WWII we have seen a mostly stable society where the elites espoused mostly believable versions of our society.  Sure, you had an outbreak in the 1960s of doubt coming from society due to Vietnam and Civil Rights, but our politicians still held together society with their views and policies [whether from the right or the left].  Any discontent was funneled into the left/right argument with each side appearing to have the answers to its adherents.

But something funny started happening about a decade or so ago.  More and more people began to doubt what the elites were telling them.  The accepted ideas of society started to be not only questioned, but to be completely rejected.  Our ideas of work, for example, were being rejected with more and more people searching for alternative types of arrangements.  Families were being reconstituted. Borders were being ignored.  Scientist questioned by laymen.

Funny, talking to other parents on my son’s soccer parents I literally couldn’t figure out who were the biological parents, who was with who, what work the parents did, and even whose house the soccer player was sleeping at.  Something that would have been unheard of a generation ago when you knew exactly who the parents were, where they lived, what they did for a living, etc.  All the old markers of society now seem to be lost.

All that is obvious and many people have noted it.  But what is just coming into view is that by untethering us from the old markers, we are free to question everything.  And with that questioning comes the understanding that we are being lied to on a regular basis by the folks in charge.  When someone in charge says things are getting better for the country and things are getting worse for you, what do you think happens?  When someone pledges “for better or worse” and then that isn’t true what do you think happens? When you are told that if you do your job well, give the company your all, you will be rewarded and it doesn’t happen, what then do you trust?  When the school system tells you they will educate your child, help your child succeed in our world, and it doesn’t happen, what then?

Teachers complain that parents don’t discipline their kids.  Physicians complain that people don’t behave as they should to have good health.  Financial advisors complain because people don’t save like they should or sell their mutual funds when they need the money.  These folks don’t trust their customers and their customers don’t really trust their advise because they see adverse results all the time.

The price of oil goes up because oil is now dear, then it goes down because there is plenty of it.  How we are suppose to eat for good health changes all the time. Educatiopn fads change the curriculum, but the kids don’t respond any differently.  Homework is piled on, yet the kids test scores are going down [and what are they doing all day in school?]. All people are supposed to be treated equally, but we don’t.

I could go on and on, but the end result is we now live in a mistrustful society.  Spend a few minutes on the internet and you realize this.  Nobody trusts anymore; not the politicians, the elites, the school systems, the financial industry, each other.  Look at gun sales for an example.

Its hard for me to point this out.  But the truth is needed to go forward.

 

Designer of the 401K now regrets it!!! January 5, 2017

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance, Mutual Funds for Retirement, Retirement Income.
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Folks who read my blog know how much I dislike the 401K as a retirement vehicle. I have often pointed out that the original design of the 401K assumed it was a supplemental strategy to go along with pensions and other investing for top level corporate executives. It was never intended for use as a single retirement vehicle for average salaried workers.

Now in an article in the Wall Street Journal written by Timothy Martin, one of the original designers basically comes out and says what I have been saying all along.

From the Wall Street Journal Piece:

“His hope in 1981 was that the retirement-savings plan would supplement a company pension that guaranteed payouts for life. Thirty-five years later, the former Johnson & Johnson human-resources executive has misgivings about what he helped start. What Mr. Whitehouse and other proponents didn’t anticipate was that the tax-deferred savings tool would largely replace pensions as big employers looked for ways to cut expenses. Just 13% of all private-sector workers have a traditional pension, compared with 38% in 1979. “We weren’t social visionaries,” Mr. Whitehouse says. Many early backers of the 401(k) now say they have regrets about how their creation turned out….

“The great lie is that the 401(k) was capable of replacing the old system of pensions,” says former American Society of Pension Actuaries head Gerald Facciani, who helped turn back a 1986 Reagan administration push to kill the 401(k). “It was oversold.” ”

So in short, corporations took advantage of the 401K to reduce pension obligations and the need to put aside $$$ to cover those obligations in both good and bad markets. They found this pension cash flow need hard to manage in varying markets. But, individuals are expected to be able to handle this cash flow issue?

I have said it before many times, but sequence of return risk is the greatest challenge to individual retirement savers. And the vast majority of workers have no idea what sequence of return risk is, let alone how it can devastate their retirement savings.

Now that the Wall Street Journal is even on board, isn’t it time you gave me a call?

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and Happy Holidays to all December 16, 2016

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance.
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Well, 2016 is almost over and thought I would post 1 more time for the year.

The stock market is still moving up at this time, but I can’t help the sinking feeling that we will have a market swoon soon. Meanwhile the Fed’s have increased the interest rate and plan on 3 more for 2017. I think that is good news and we really need a more normal interest rate environment. Cap rates for EIULs will start to trend up if these interest rate hikes happen.

The oil market has begun to turn on the back of a 6 month OPEC et al. reduction. But I just can’t shake the feeling that we are going to be on a real hard ride up for oil prices all to soon. We still have significant reserves built up from the last 2 years of oversupply, but there are few places that can ramp up speedily to account for depletion and an additional 1-1.5M BPD increase in demand that will happen in 2017. Oil is like this, never a dull moment.

Real Estate is still hanging in there, and is still a great place to put your investment dollars in my opinion [once you get your EIUL established of course :-)].

Well, snow is falling and I just heard that the local downhills and cross-country trails are opening this weekend, so should be a great holiday time for the Shafer Family!!!

Are people waking up to the issues of mutual funds as retirement vehicles? October 17, 2016

Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance, mutual funds, Retirement Income, Uncategorized.
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An interesting trend is occurring with the people who are contacting me about EIULs. I am getting a lot of calls from folks in their early to mid thirties who start the conversation off with something like this: My 401K is going nowhere, I know there must be a better way to save for retirement. Now I find this very interesting because most of these folks weren’t in the market in 2008, the last time we saw a significant negative year.

I had this conversation recently with a 35 year old.

DS: What are you trying to accomplish?
Client: Well, my 401K is going nowhere, so I am looking for something that will do better and work for me.
DS: When did you start your 401K?
Client: Well, I don’t really remember, but it was somewhere around 2008 or 2009. Before that, I really didn’t have a great job and I wasn’t married so I was spending everything I made.
DS: Do you own a home?
Client: Yes, after getting married, my wife and I were able to buy a home with assistance from our families.
DS: How much are you able to save now?
Client: Well, between my wife and myself we are saving around $1200 month including what we put into our 401Ks. Before our 1st child was born, it was a little more.
DS: Do you remember the stock market dropping significantly?
Client: Well, I do remember it, but it did’t really affect me, so my memory of it is vague. Around 2007 or so right? But we do remember the housing prices dropping, because we were able to pick up a nice house for a decent price in 2010.
DS: Yes, 2008 was the last time we saw a big drop in the stock market.

What is surprising to me, is that this 35 year old recognizes the issues with mutual funds even though he hasn’t had a truly big negative year. People tend to forget the fear of big drops in ones finances, but the scars remain long after the memory fades. But, this person was able to recognize the issue without the scars or the memory. And he isn’t alone. I have been getting increasing amounts of calls from folks in this same situation and similar age group.

That is progress.

On Being a Contrarian September 4, 2016

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Not a day goes by when I don’t speak to a very intelligent person who simply accepts the common wisdom about life.  Mostly, this doesn’t cause problems for folks.  Unfortunately, there are some area’s of life where just going along with the herd will lead to unfortunate circumstances.

My wife and I aren’t like that.  We are contrarians. My wife after watching a ton of TV shows about tiny house living convinced me that we were wasting time and money living in a 2000 square foot abode with just 3 people.  So, when we wanted to move she convinced me to move into a smaller place; 750 sq. feet.  Frankly, I had my doubts, but guess what?  It is working well. Before we had large chunks of our home that we never used other than to throw junk into and collect spider webs.  No longer.  Cleaning…..is swift and easy  and because we use most of our space we keep it more tidy than before. Now when our son disappears into his room [ok his room isn’t tidy] he is simply a few steps away to call for meals. We got rid of lots of stuff we hadn’t used in years.  We really do feel lighter.  Hard to explain but it works.  Who knew spending less money on living expenses, getting rid of excess things, and being physically closer to your family would make you feel so much better?

I do retirement income seminars with some folks.  We give information on several alternative strategies for retirement income including EIULs.  We took a year hiatus, but we have scheduled another one:

October 28-29 2016 San Diego California

If you have any doubts about what you are doing with your finances, you owe it to yourself to come and listen to our group of experts.  For a small amount of dollars you can at the very least understand alternative strategies and possibly put your financial future on stable ground.  Doesn’t matter where you live, get on a plane and come out to San Diego to meet us.  You can find the link on my retirement income page.

When I talk to folks who followed our advice, they all say they feel much better; happier, less stressed.  Becoming a contrarian has its benefits……..