Looking back at the experts predictions. February 4, 2009Posted by shaferfinancial in Finance.
Tags: Looking back at expert predicitions, Why are you listening to experts?
As regular readers know, I point out that rarely do folks take a look back at “experts” advice to see how they did. The other day I came across an article written in December of 2002, by well known financial expert James Glassman, where he suggested three actively managed mutual funds going forward. Let’s take a quick look at how good his advice was.
The three mutual funds were:
The Torray Fund (TORYX)
Jenson Fund (JENSX)
Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX)
If you had invested $10,000 in each of these funds on Jan 14, 2000 (long enough time frame to account for short term fluctuations and both up and down markets) you would have:
$4,557 in the Torray Fund
$8,305 in the Jenson Fund
$6,650 in the Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
Compare this to if you invested that same $10,000 in the low expense indexed Vanguard S & P 500 Fund: $5,818
Or if you invested that same $10K in Berkshire Hathaway: $17,700 or
If you invested that same $10K in Heath Care REIT (HCN) and reinvested dividends: $33,900
Now why are you listening to those “experts?”