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Musings on Covid 19 May 1, 2020

Posted by shaferfinancial in paradigm shift, trust, Uncategorized.
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There is so much panic and subterfuge now around Covid 19, that it is close to impossible to write anything based on what the science is demonstrating without having people jump right to criticism and emotional outbursts. Note the craziness over the release of pre-prints of the antibody testing now ongoing. People weren’t willing to allow science to guide their opinions and the outcry and criticism of the Stanford research was laughable. And it turns out that now multiple studies with various sampling methods, many randomized are proving the Stanford researchers correct. USC researchers, University of Miami researchers, Harvard researchers and the state of NY public health researchers all concur that there are many many people out there that have had the infection without symptoms. And the worst part is this is great news. It means the virus isn’t as deadly as we thought.

The 2008-2009 H1N1 pandemic provides an interesting comparison. This influenza A pandemic started in the US and like Covid was a novel virus. It spread to the rest of the world and in its first year it was estimated to have killed 360,000 people. So far, it has been estimated that Covid 19 has taken 233,000 deaths.

But that is where the comparison stops. That strain of H1N1 mostly killed children and young adults. While the average age of death for Covid 19 is around 80. It was thought that the reason for this was that older people had antibodies from a previous strain of H1N1, that occurred many years before. That is why this pandemic was much worse in 3rd world countries, than the US. While we had 12,000 deaths here in the US, countries with larger percentage of the young had much worse deaths. By June, the end of the influenza season the CDC reported more than 1 million cases in the US. 980 schools were closed in early May in places that had significant activity. The pandemic that started in mid-April was essentially done by mid July of that year. It has reappeared yearly since then, but in much reduced numbers. In July of the first year clinical trails started for a test. And by September 15th a vaccine had been made. A second wave started in late September causing school closure again. But that second wave subsided in 2 months. The vaccine was distributed to the public in December of that year and provided significant immunity. This H1N1 infection faded into the background and is still with us today. There were some hospitals that erected tents to treat patients because of overflow from this virus.

Note our response to a virus that was killing children and young adults. It was rational. School closures in hot spots. Erecting tents to provide health care in areas that were overrun with patients.

Now, what we know of the COVID 19 virus is it is killing older people at a much greater rate than the H1N1 virus killed young folks. That is common sense, of course, as 80 year olds are much sicker in general and don’t have reserves to overcome novel viruses or strong immunity systems. And I say this without prejudice or meanness in mind. The life span of someone born in 1940 (80 years ago) was 70. These folks dying of Covid 19 have already outlived their peer group by 10 years or more. And this is what we are seeing. The oldest and sickest people, mostly in long term institutional care, are dying from Covid 19, while each younger segment are mostly recovering and at the youngest age groups showing little or no symptoms.

So that begs the question, Why, like the 2008-09 pandemic, did we not do a vertical integration mitigation strategy? In other words, in the 2008-2009 pandemic we closed schools in heavily impacted areas because the children were the ones most heavily impacted. Why did we not lock down long term care facilities, shelter in place orders for those 65 and older who don’t work, masks for health care workers who work with the elderly, etc.? Why instead did we do a horizontal mitigation strategy, closing down our entire society? And don’t say we didn’t know, because we did from both China and Italy/Spain. We knew who was at risk and how to best protect them. Don’t say in order to protect Grandma, we needed to keep their grandchildren out of school, because that violates all we know about how to stop pandemics and what we have done every time since WW2.

Next post I will take a look at the 1957 flu pandemic.

I hope I have left you with some more understanding of pandemic societal reactions and some deep questions.

Be safe.

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