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The 1957 Asian Flu May 20, 2020

Posted by shaferfinancial in paradigm shift, trust.

In 1957 a pandemic of the “Asian” flu hit the USA. This flu (H2N2) killed 116,000 Americans and millions around the world. It lasted 10 years as a seasonal virus and morphed into the Hong Kong flu in 1968-69. The IFR was estimated at .69%. The virus killed mostly older Americans and pregnant women. At the time the population was 1/2 what it is now. On top of that the USA was much younger and had less obesity/chronic diseases with the exception of smoking related diseases. With our current population that would 232,000 deaths. Note, the IFR was at the top range of what we are experiencing now with Covid 19.

There was common awareness at the time of this pandemic. A few conventions that had a significant amount of older folks were canceled. The media covered it as a medical event. A few schools were also closed down when an outbreak occurred. A vaccine was soon found, but it wasn’t very effective. But here is the big difference, politicians didn’t step in. Media wasn’t constantly reporting exaggerated or false claims. Somehow our 1957 selves were able to muddle through, even our 1957 health care system.

Have we lost the ability to think rationally? Or politically are we so sick as to have weak-minded politicians? How can our politicians not understand to protect the older folks and health care providers, from day 1, when we have history of many large and small pandemics? Where did they get the idea that we could do shelter-in-place and protect grandma????? Note 40%-78% of all deaths around the country are from long term care facilities. 15%-35% of cases are from health care providers (depending on state). I was amused when the NY governor seemed perplexed about over 60% of new cases in NY came from people abiding by shelter-in-place orders. In 1918 it was found that fresh air and sunshine was most helpful for the pandemic victims of that time. We know that these viruses spread in closed areas and that the longer you are in a closed area with infected people the higher the viral loading gets. Yet, our governors told us for a month or longer to stay at home.

Did this protect grandma???? No. Did this prevent folks from getting infected???? No. Did it lower the curve?? Probably. Did this extend the epidemic? Yes. Should there have been shelter in place orders? Yes, but only in a couple of places where the infections were raging so much to put hospital beds in short supply.

Latest update: Some colleges are starting early as to end the semester by Thanksgiving given there is evidence that this will become a seasonal affect pandemic. They hope to not have students on campus at the beginning of winter when the flu season usually starts.

Overall number in the USA remain stubbornly high in high density areas. Most states are starting to open up slowly. The numbers of deaths and cases (highly affected by numbers of tests) are on a downward trend. We are testing 3 times as many as 3 weeks ago. Average positive per test has plummeted (a great sign for our testing program as well as an indication of waning infections). My area has around 1 infection and 0 deaths per day. There has been a total of 3 deaths in my area (population 120,000) and around 110 infections. Was able to sit outside at a restaurant yesterday. That was nice. Beaches still closed, so probably no summer work for my son.


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