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Covid Tradeoff July 25, 2020

Posted by shaferfinancial in Uncategorized.

So, little is talked about the tradeoff between mitigation of Covid 19 and jobs. But it is clear that there is a tradeoff.

For example, Vermont. The Republican governor, Scott, has been very aggressive with mitigation despite the numbers of infections being low and percent positive on testing being the lowest of all states. Just yesterday he ordered a face covering mandate. This in a state that hasn’t had a death in over a month, has one of the lowest deaths per million (90) and is presently averaging 7 positive tests per day and has 2 people in the hospital in the whole state for Covid.

So how is Vermont doing with jobs? Vermont has lost 13.2% of their jobs due to Covid. Well, they are 5th worst behind Hawaii (15.8% loss of jobs), New York (15.1%), Massachusetts (14.4%), and New Jersey (13.5%).

Hawaii is an outlier because of its dependence on tourism ie people flying from various places. The other 3 states had a severe outbreak of Covid that required the harshest mitigation possible.

What about the current surging states. Well Florida, Arizona, Texas and Utah never had a harsh shutdown and their economy is much better than average. Florida -6%, Texas -5.3%, Arizona -3.3% and Utah lost 2.8% of their jobs. Utah stands out as having 85 deaths per million, one of the lowest among the states. Arizona is 432, Texas is 170 and Florida 263. Of note is that Arizona and Florida have large numbers of older folks living both within long term care institutions and outside of them.

So while the media is screaming because of the surges in those states, the vast majority of people are better off with at least a job to pay the bills. And the vast majority of deaths still is among the elderly with 45-50% of deaths being among nursing home patients.

Again, it’s a tradeoff. But, let the politicians be honest about it. Sacrifice 50 million jobs to attempt to protect elderly folks (and fail at that for the most part). I’m not a proponent of either side, just feel a conversation needs to be had on it for the future.


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