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Shout out to the good work of Doctors/Nurses/Researchers October 16, 2020

Posted by shaferfinancial in Uncategorized.
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While I have been and continue to be highly critical of public health officials and politicians, we have seen remarkable work and progress from those treating Covid 19. Although there has been a lot of give and take about what works and what doesn’t, the overall CFR (Case Fatality Rate) has dropped significantly in all age groups. I note that 90 year old football coach Bobby Bowden was positive for Covid, went into the hospital and has recovered and is at home all in less than a week. But, of course that is one case. Here are the charts that demonstrate how well medicine is doing with this illness:

Note the graph above. In the first wave, deaths are way above daily cases. Frankly, we were killing people with our care, specifically with the ventilator use. But we got better. The second wave the CFR was 75% lower. Note that the red line, the daily case count, went from half as tall to twice as tall. And now with the third wave, 1 month in, we see the death rate going the opposite direction as the case count. Three cheers for our medical doctors, nurses and researchers.

Here is the daily case count and the current hospitalizations. We start out with the hospitalizations roughly twice as high, the same as the first graph. In the second wave the two lines are basically identical. Now we see a divergence with the case count separating from the hospitalizations. This points to the younger ages of those in the case counts, but also with a better understanding of how to deal with the disease and getting patients in and out of the door faster, like Bobby Bowden.

I thought I would leave this one with you from the CDC. Of the 99,000+ excess deaths listed by categories, 31% of the excess deaths were in the Alzheimer/Dementia category. The next two were hypertension and Ischemic Heart disease, followed by Diabetes. Given that the deaths are so skewed to the older than 70 age group (median age of death 78), this might give some clarity as to who are the vulnerable populations in need of protection.

I won’t add the chart, but we are almost back to the 5 year average death rate after seeing deaths spike in the early months of the pandemic here in the US.

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